On the value of a potential DJ LeMahieu resurgence in the leadoff spot

LeMahieu’s 2023 was uncharacteristic and saw him move around the lineup constantly. In 2024, his value as a leadoff hitter could truly separate the top of the Yankees’ order from the rest of the pack.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Since the start of Yankees spring training, the talk of the town is Juan Soto, and understandably so. One of the best hitters, if not the best all-around hitter in baseball, has made his way to the Bronx, and naturally, questions have revolved around his spot near the top of the batting order with Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton.

However, with that star power, there needs to be a great setup man, which is why DJ LeMahieu’s potential for resurgence as a leadoff hitter for the Yankees could be one of the most underrated and important narratives coming into 2024.

During an ESPN spring training game between the Yankees and Mets, Yankees fans who were watching had the chance to hear from the skipper, Aaron Boone, about LeMahieu and the work he has put in over the winter to get back to where he was before last season’s struggles.

“He looks as good as I’ve seen in a few years,” Boone said. “His lower half is so much more explosive. He’s moving well, he’s running well. He looks more dynamic in the box. I thought he made a good adjustment to put a pretty good second half together last year, but to me, he’s taken an even bigger step physically with the work he’s done this winter.”

After talking about what the Yankees utility man was able to do to get back on track over the winter, Boone mentioned how important LeMahieu’s approach is, especially at the top of a lineup featuring those star names.

“When DJ is right, he embodies that ‘grind you down’ [mentality],” Boone said. “He’s willing to see pitches, especially when he’s hitting in front of Judge or Soto. He’s not afraid to go to two strikes and make you work with the idea of getting on base at a really high clip.”

Having a consistent leadoff hitter is a luxury the Yankees had when LeMahieu was on, and it was a huge, yet semi-underrated position in the order.

The step Boone is referring to was a necessary one, as LeMahieu’s production was uncharacteristic over the course of 2023. In 136 games, he slashed .243/.327/.390 with a 101 wRC+ and a 1.1 fWAR. His strikeout rate of 22.2 percent was a career-high and the highest since his first time in the majors at 22 years old (19.4 percent). His walk rate also finished at 10.7 percent, a 1.7 percent decrease from the 2022 season.

As a further aside, LeMahieu tied his lowest career wOBA at a mark of .315. However, unlike the previous time he hit that number in 2021, his xwOBA (.320) suggested his production was about right. For context, his xwOBA in 2021 was .340. He also had the lowest xBA of his entire career at .252, with his previous career-low being .274.

All of those numbers showcase just how different LeMahieu was in the batter’s box last year compared to years prior. Because he was so different, it forced Boone to take action and move players around the batting order. Over the course of 2023, 10 different players hit in the top spot of the order. LeMahieu started the majority of the games there with 58, but compared to the rest of his tenure as a Yankee, that number is much lower as well.

From 2019-22, LeMahieu hit leadoff 409 times in 470 games, an 87-percent clip. In a single season, he didn’t start fewer than 72 percent of his games in the leadoff spot. But in 2023, that number dropped to 42.6 percent.

Whether or not it was because Boone couldn’t trust him to hit in front of Judge anymore or he wanted to try different looks with Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe (for the most part) hasn’t exactly been established. LeMahieu was hurt for a period during the season, so that plays a role, but in 78 games, LeMahieu was in the order and not hitting leadoff. Considering the offense’s production as a whole last season, it’s not necessarily surprising to see players shift around more than normal to try and find some sort of consistency, but a bit surprising focusing on LeMahieu and where he’s started consistently as Yankee.

However, with the news that LeMahieu looks the best Boone has seen and all of the attention on the resurgence of Stanton and Rizzo, along with the introduction of Soto, who absolutely loves the spotlight, we could see LeMahieu bounce back and create the value everyone knows he can generate from the leadoff spot.

Spring training is still spring training, but everyone watching the bottom of the second inning between the Yankees and the Blue Jays on March 1st got an example of what the top of the Yankees order could do in any given game.

LeMahieu walked. Soto walked. Judge walked. And Rizzo hit a grand slam.

Of course, this doesn’t necessarily showcase a resurgence in LeMahieu’s hitting ability, but it does showcase what could happen if LeMahieu can bring his strikeout rate back to earth, increase his walk rate just a bit, and get on base using his bat. The three players behind him can drive him in, but it’s just a matter of getting on-base by any means necessary.

If LeMahieu can find his bat again in the leadoff spot, it could be the way that the top of the Yankees’ order separates themselves from their peers in the AL East and even MLB as a whole. They need much more production than last season if they want a chance to compete for a World Series championship. Nailing down a leadoff hitter in front of Soto, Judge, Rizzo, and Stanton would be a fantastic start, and if the LeMahieu of years past can relish in the shadow of his counterparts who find themselves with more media attention and find his way back, it would be a huge boost for the lineup and a weight off many shoulders, especially the manager’s.

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