It’s apparently not too soon to talk about the favorites to sign Juan Soto when he hits free agency after the 2024 season.
One could say that the operative word up there (i.e., “when”) is presumptuous, but even the New York Yankees aren’t expecting to sign Soto to an extension. General manager Brian Cashman made this clear when spring training opened last month:
Which brings us to Sunday, when Bob Nightengale of USA Today pointed to the crosstown New York Mets as a team that’s “not only expected to strongly pursue, but could be among the favorites for” Soto in free agency.
As an excuse to speculate on other potential suitors for Soto, this is as good a jumping-off point as any. But first, it’s instructive to think about what it could cost to get the three-time All-Star and his agent, Scott Boras, to sign off on a deal.
What Will Soto’s Value Be in Free Agency?
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Juan SotoNew York Yankees/Getty Images
We can all agree that Soto is pretty good, right?
Even if his abilities on the bases and in the field are lacking, he’s truly one of the best young hitters in MLB history. Soto has led the majors in walks in each of the last three seasons and is otherwise one of only six hitters to ever top a .400 OBP and 160 home runs at his age.
And that age? It’s young, alright. Soto will hit the market off his age-25 season, having just turned 26 on Oct. 25.
Granted, the 2023-24 offseason has taken some of the shine off Boras’ reputation as a master deal-maker. But that’s no reason to anticipate further disappointment with Soto next winter. Barring a disastrous 2024 season, he’s going to get paid.
Back in December, I considered all possible factors and settled on $520 million as a target price for Soto and Boras. It wouldn’t technically beat Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal as the biggest in MLB history, except it sort of would. Because of all its deferred money, the present-day value of Ohtani’s contract is more like $460 million.
Even if my $520 million estimate proves on the high side, you can rest assured that the price will still be big enough to altogether exclude a number of teams from the bidding. Which, of course, doesn’t exactly make it easier to pursue an exercise like this one.
Still, coming up with hypothetical suitors for Soto wasn’t too hard. I’ve made the case for and against 10 in particular, with the list counting down to the team that’s strong in the former and weak in the latter.
But first, some honorable mentions.
Honorable Mentions
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Xander Bogaerts (L) and Juan Soto (R)Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Atlanta
Atlanta was a sensible landing spot for Soto when the San Diego Padres were shopping him on the trade market, but it’s harder to imagine them making a play for him in free agency.
The franchise’s next nine-figure deal in free agency will be its first. And if it’s ever going to happen, it will probably be at a time when its books aren’t already loaded.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers should be on the verge of finally switching off rebuilding mode. And when they do, perhaps they’ll get back to running top 10 payrolls.
Then again, maybe not. It was under late owner Mike Ilitch that the Tigers were one of MLB’s biggest spenders in the 2010s. His son, Christopher, has been more frugal and generally seems averse to building around a single highly paid star.
San Diego Padres
If Soto and the Padres getting back together is plausible for any reason, it’s that they stand to save plenty of money after lopping almost $100 million off their 2023 payroll.
Of course, they had to do this partially because they couldn’t afford last year’s payroll. And with Peter Seidler having passed away, whether anyone in the club’s current ownership group will be as zealous about spending remains to be seen.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers proved in 2023 that it actually is possible to build a championship team on a foundation of hired guns. With a good chunk of change set to come off their books after 2024, might they be willing to add a piece as big as Soto to their collection?
It should be plausible, but the big unknown here is what their broadcast future looks like. As it is, they only recently cut a deal with Diamond Sports Group just for 2024.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals had the league’s fourth-highest payroll when, with Soto’s help, they won the World Series in 2019. And after years of looking to sell the franchise, the ownership group that OK’d that payroll has decided to stick around after all.
Yet even if one takes it for granted that a return to big spending is somewhere in Washington’s future, it seems unlikely that that moment will come as soon as after this season. Suffice it to say that the Nats’ rebuild still needs a lot of work.
10. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Freddie Freeman (L) and Shohei Ohtani (R)Christian Petersen/Getty Images
The Case for Them
Come on, you knew I had to bring up the Dodgers.
If the Yankees are baseball’s Evil Empire, then the Dodgers are its Borg Collective. All they do is assimilate and destroy, as they’ve won close to 100 more games than any other team since 2013 and are riding the wave of a $1 billion offseason into 2024.
Come next winter, the Dodgers should be in the market for a corner outfielder. Those spots are presently occupied by Jason Heyward and Teoscar Hernández, but both are only signed for this year.
Soto has liked hitting at Dodger Stadium to the tune of a career .947 OPS. And if he wants to go to a place where he knows he can win, well, the Dodgers would represent his best possible bet.
The Case Against Them
This just seems like more of a fun idea than a practical one, doesn’t it?
Even for a team with the Dodgers’ resources, having four players on $300 million contracts would be a bit much. And though they broke the mold to sign Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the team’s previous M.O. under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was to be more risk-averse toward free agency.
9. Seattle Mariners
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Julio RodríguezSteph Chambers/Getty Images
The Case for Them
Though the Mariners seemingly never got seriously involved in the Soto trade sweepstakes, they sure looked like a good fit for him on paper.
With only Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger standing in his way in the corner outfield spots, that will still be the case when Soto reaches free agency. The Mariners also just plain need another offensive superstar to complement Julio Rodríguez, and it’s hard to imagine anyone better suited to the task than Soto.
As for whether the Mariners could afford him, it’s not totally unbelievable.
They’ll hopefully have a little extra in their coffers after sitting out free agency this winter and last winter. Plus, it’s not as if this franchise has never done a megadeal. Robinson Cano’s $240 million contract from 2013 would be worth $314 million in today’s dollars.
The Case Against Them
There’s been chatter here and there about Soto preferring to play on the East Coast. If that’s true, then him willfully going to play in the Pacific Northwest is likely a reach.
We can otherwise be real that, even when adjusted for inflation, Cano’s contract isn’t an ideal precedent for what Soto is going to command as a free agent. There’s also the ballpark issue, as T-Mobile Park is one of the least friendly stadiums for hitters in all of MLB.
8. Baltimore Orioles
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Gunnar Henderson (L) and Adley Rutschman (R)Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images
The Case Against Them
The Orioles? Giving out a $500 million contract? Are we in Bizarro World?
No, but we are in the dawn of a new and potentially much different era of Orioles baseball. It shouldn’t be long before the Angelos family officially sells the franchise to David Rubenstein, after all.
The net worth of the latter is about twice that of the former, and that’s only one thing that makes it possible to dream of the Orioles abandoning the bottom-five payroll life in style. As of now, there are zero guaranteed dollars on their books after 2025.
For his part, Soto is obviously no stranger to the Beltway area. And while the hitter-friendliness of Oriole Park at Camden Yards has diminished since the dimensions changed in 2022, it’s still favorable to left-handed sluggers.
The Case Against Them
Ah, but the problem with how Soto’s power would play at OPACY is in precisely where said power really stands out. He’s more of an opposite-field slugger, and that’s where Baltimore’s home park is less than forgiving.
Besides, if I’m Rubenstein, my primary goal upon taking over is to make Baltimore the Atlanta of the American League. Extensions for Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and maybe even Corbin Burnes must come first.
7. Boston Red Sox
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Rafael DeversBarry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
The Case for Them
The Red Sox opened with the highest payroll in MLB in both 2018 and 2019, so they can’t blame anyone for wondering what they’re doing outside the top 10 these days.
Yet even if it’s just for a moment, let’s assume that part of what the Red Sox are doing is saving up money as they bide their time. Just waiting for the right moment to make a splash.
If so, all would be forgiven if Soto is said splash. Simply taking him from the Yankees would be sweet enough, and then there’s the prospect of how he would take to Boston.
Or Fenway Park, more specifically. It’s a welcome environment for left-handed hitters with good opposite-field strokes, and this particular lefty hitter has a 1.085 OPS when going oppo for his career. I’m not saying “The next David Ortiz,” but I do want you to think it.
The Case Against Them
As fun as it is to imagine Soto at Fenway Park alongside Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, even the former is openly griping about how much the team needs pitching. And that’s unlikely to change between now and next offseason.
So if the Red Sox are going to spend next winter, it should be on arms. And given the club’s recent spending habits, the “if” there is worth stressing again.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
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Bryce HarperTim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
The Case for Them
The Phillies were reportedly never in on Soto as the Padres were shopping him, but some must have surely made personal headcanon out of the pairing.
“You win with star players” is president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s philosophy, and the club’s roster is largely built on a certain type of star. As personified by Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, these are guys who just plain mash.
Soto is that kind of star, and he doesn’t need to be told that Citizens Bank Park is a great place for mashers to mash. In 35 career games there, he has a 1.083 OPS and 13 home runs.
As for the money, there might not be a window for Soto if the Phillies follow through on their intentions to extend Wheeler. But if they don’t, well, that’s an extra $23.5 million in payroll space to work with.
The Case Against Them
Of course, it’s probably more likely than not that the Phillies will extend Wheeler. And if they do, they’re going to have more money committed to 2025 than any other team.
That alone could nix a deal with Soto, and then there’s the possibility that Harper will also have his desire for an extension realized. As much as Dombrowski likes his stars, he thus might not have the leeway to add one as big as Soto.
5. Chicago Cubs
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Cody BellingerJamie Sabau/Getty Images
The Case for Them
It’s not for lack of trying that the Cubs aren’t already on the hook to pay a franchise slugger hundreds of millions of dollars.
They were in the running to sign Ohtani, after all, and nobody can say he wouldn’t have fit perfectly in their offense. They got only 44 home runs from left-handed hitters in 2023, or exactly as many as Ohtani hit all on his own.
Soto is not Ohtani, of course, but he is a fellow left-handed slugger who would be a dandy of a fix for the aforementioned problem. Plus, he might make more sense for the Cubs from a financial perspective.
If Cody Bellinger opts out (again) next winter, that’s $27.5 million the Cubs wouldn’t have to spend on him in 2025. When coupled with the $16 million that will get freed up when Kyle Hendricks becomes a free agent, suddenly a window for Soto is visible.
The Case Against Them
Though the Cubs were indeed in on Ohtani, they reportedly weren’t one of the teams that was willing to match the $700 million offer the Dodgers made him.
If there’s anything to be gleaned from this, it’s that the Cubs may be willing to get ambitious with who they pursue, but not so much with what they spend. If so, it’s hard to imagine a pursuit of Soto ending more successfully than their pursuit of Ohtani.
4. San Francisco Giants
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Farhan ZaidiSuzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images
The Case for Them
The Giants, on the other hand, were willing to match what the Dodgers offered Ohtani.
That revelation wasn’t terribly surprising, and not just because the Giants haven’t been spending like they used to in recent years. They also clearly crave star power after previously trying and failing to add Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa.
As such, it will be equally unsurprising if the Giants make Soto their next obsession. And unless the Dodgers determine their Borg Cube indeed needs a hitter of Soto’s distinctiveness, the Giants could pursue him with confidence that their biggest rival won’t spoil the party.
There is the Oracle Park complication, of course, but it might not be a deal-breaker in this scenario. Soto has a .953 OPS in 19 career games in San Francisco.
The Case Against Them
But should Soto’s personal success overrule the greater tendencies of Oracle Park? It shouldn’t, as its reputation as a rough place for sluggers is well earned. Only PNC Park and Comerica Park rate as worse places to hit home runs.
The Giants landing Soto may therefore require not merely a competitive offer, but the best offer. Them being the ones to make it isn’t impossible, but may not be probable either.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (L) and Bo Bichette (R)Mark Blinch/Getty Images
The Case for Them
Here’s where we come to a team that wasn’t just willing to go in the “same financial ballpark” on Ohtani as the Dodgers, but one that was also in on the Soto trade sweepstakes.
It’s as if the Blue Jays recognized that their lineup needed a left-handed slugger. They got only 57 home runs from lefty hitters in 2023. A third of those came from Brandon Belt, who’s now a free agent.
This issue figures to be there all over again after the 2024 season, only this time the Blue Jays will only have to come up with the right cash offer to land Soto.
To this end, having Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi García come off the books will open up $39.8 million in payroll space. Or, about what Soto could earn annually in a 13-year deal.
The Case Against Them
Whereas it had previously tended to play more friendly to hitters, Rogers Centre was one of the worst parks for hitters in 2023. That could just be coincidence, but the possibility of it having to do with the new dimensions can’t be dismissed.
In addition to that, Soto would also need to consider where this franchise is headed. Underperforming has been the name of the game in each of the last two seasons, and Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are only controlled through 2025.
2. New York Yankees
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Aaron Judge (L) and Juan Soto (R)New York Yankees/Getty Images
The Case for Them
Just because the Yankees aren’t counting on extending Soto doesn’t mean they’re not actively trying to convince him that New York is where he belongs.
Cashman has spoken of a “recruiting beacon” powered by the club’s resources and infrastructure and, of course, “one of the greatest fanbases in the world.” Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is clearly trying to get on Soto’s good side:
The Yankee Stadium factor can’t be ignored either. Hypothetically, Soto might not actually have much to gain from its dimensions. Realistically, there’s never been a lefty hitter who wasn’t helped by that short porch in right field.
Otherwise, one would hope the money won’t be an issue. The Yankees are the second-most valuable sports franchise in the world, and next winter will see a ton of salary come off their books.
The Case Against Them
Honestly? The notion that the Yankees are on an island unto themselves when it comes to prestige is dated. They last went to the World Series 15 years ago, and they’ve opened with MLB’s highest payroll just once in the last 10 seasons.
This doesn’t mean the Yankees’ chances of re-signing Soto are bad, mind you. They’ll likely be quite good. But if nothing else, it’s not hard to imagine another team making a better offer.
1. New York Mets
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Pete Alonso (L) and Francisco Lindor (R)Rich Schultz/Getty Images
The Case for Them
If the Mets indeed decide they want to sign Soto next winter, it’ll be hard for anyone to outlast them in a bidding war.
Even for a year that looks like a bridge after they went all-in on 2023 with a $350 million payroll, the Mets are still projected to run a $315 million payroll. And with so many one-year deals on their books, their commitments will basically be cut in half when the season’s done.
The Mets therefore shouldn’t have to choose between adding Soto and retaining Pete Alonso. If they want them both, they should be able to afford them both.
One catch is that Citi Field is not Yankee Stadium, but that hasn’t kept Soto from posting a 1.165 OPS and 11 home runs there for his career. And if it’s a big market he wants to play in, well, the Mets obviously wouldn’t represent a step down from the Yankees.
The Case Against Them
I made the point earlier that Soto’s success at Oracle Park should overrule the park’s generally pitcher-friendly tendencies. It’s only fair to also apply that logic to Citi Field, which is likewise not a great place for sluggers.
Yet perhaps the only other question is whether the Mets could sell Soto on their long-term contention window. That figures to be far from a hopeless cause, however. They won 101 games just two years ago, and it isn’t just Steve Cohen’s money that hints at a brighter future. The Mets also have a stacked farm system.
