The highs are high, but the possible lows…?

Mar 3, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Juan Soto (22) runs the bases after / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Yankee fans have a preternatural tendency to assume their team will contend for, and probably win, the World Series. Giving them Juan Soto, even on a short-term rental, feeds that assumption. Any analysis of Yankee chances for 2024 has to begin by understanding that mindset.

Yankees’ Best-Case Scenario for 2024

Clearly the Yankees have enough talent to make World Series dreams plausible. Begin with Gerrit Cole, the game’s best pitcher right now. In 2023, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner was 15-4 with a 2.62 ERA in 33 starts encompassing 209 innings of work.

The offense begins with the outfield sluggers, Soto and Aaron Judge. In two-thirds of a season, Judge hit 37 home runs with 75 RBI. Soto, who played all 162 for San Diego, hit 35 homers with 109 RBI. Gleyber Torres produced an .800 OPS, better than anybody on the team except Judge. The Yanks also added Alex Verdugo, joining a supporting cast that includes veterans of the stripe of Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu.

Stanton’s is the key name here. All the reports out of camp are that he’s in the best shape of his life and ready to deliver as he did as recently as 2021, when he produced an .870 OPS. That level of Stanton would be a capital boost for the Yankees.

Beyond Cole, the Yanks plan to use a buffet of veteran starters who’ve done it … sometimes. Marcus Stroman was great for half a season with the Cubs last year, Carlos Rodón was sensational with the Giants in 2022, and Nestor Cortes was nasty as a Yankee starter, also in 2022.

If it all works – particularly if Stanton, Stroman, Cortes and Rodón all return to previous form – then yes, this Yankee team can make dreams come true. That’s not to say the Yanks are better than the Orioles – they’re not – but they’re good enough to snag a wild card spot. And, as has been frequently demonstrated from there, anything’s possible.

Cole, Judge and Soto may be three of the surest bets in sports (if healthy), but beyond that, the potential pitfalls to a successful 2024 in the Bronx are numerous. As noted above, save for Cole, virtually every likely rotation starter is coming off either a bad 2023 (Rodón), a bad second half of 2023 (Stroman) or virtually no 2023 at all (Cortes). Who’s to say any of those guys return to form?

It wasn’t that long ago that Anthony Rizzo was a great offensive force. But he’s 34 now and coming off the worst season of his major league career. The Yankees believe Rizzo’s .244 average and relative lack of power were aberrations, caused by a line of demarcation/the aftereffects of a concussion he suffered. What if it was, instead, the start of a trend?

Re-read the above paragraph substituting the name of DJ LeMahieu for Rizzo and changing the age from 34 to 35. Then re-read it a third time substituting the name of Stanton. Now how do you feel about the Yankee offense?

If Stroman, Cortes and Rodón all pitch like they did over the final three months of 2023, and if Rizzo, LeMahieu and Stanton all continue their decline phase, the Yanks’ 82-80 record of 2023 may actually look good.

Yankees’ Most Realistic 2024 Season Scenario

The Yanks enter 2024 with an aging, often injured roster containing more productivity-based question marks than their fan base is likely willing to admit. It’s been a full decade since the Yanks failed to play a postseason game two years running. They’re probably better than the Rays and Jays, which makes them solid wild card contenders.

But given the questions presented by reliance on Stroman, Cortes, Rodón, LeMahieu, Rizzo and Stanton, this is a team that could also be set up for one of the epic falls of 2024. The Yanks, after all, finished 25th in run production last season. Judge, Soto, Cole and — to a lesser extent — Torres are all exceptional talents in their primes, fully capable of offsetting that potential downward spiral. They may have to.