The Formula 1 world is bracing for the most seismic shift in a generation. As the dust settles on Lando Norris’s triumphant 2025 championship campaign, the sport is staring down the barrel of the revolutionary 2026 regulations. It is a year of “unknowns,” a clean slate that threatens to tear up the form book and humble the giants of the grid.
In the latest episode of the Stay On Track podcast, F1 legends Damon Hill and Johnny Herbert dissected the looming chaos, offering a fascinating—and at times brutal—assessment of the grid. From the technical minefield of the new power units to the psychological battles of the drivers, their verdict suggests that the 2026 crown may not stay in Woking or return to Milton Keynes, but instead head to a garage that has been quietly plotting its revenge: Mercedes.
The 2026 Revolution: “Totally Different Beasts”
The 2026 season isn’t just a new chapter; it’s an entirely new book. As Hill and Herbert explained, the technical overhaul is massive. The cars will feature a radical 50/50 split between internal combustion and electric power, with the battery now producing a staggering 50% of the horsepower.
“The battery’s got massive,” Herbert noted, highlighting the immense challenge engineers face. The removal of the MGU-H means the turbo no longer charges the battery, creating a headache around energy depletion. Drivers won’t just be racing; they’ll be managing a complex energy system while grappling with active aerodynamics—wings that flatten on straights and pop up in corners.
“It’s going to take a lot of head-scratching,” Hill admitted. “Drivers will be using different techniques around the circuit… it’s going to be a big test for the engineers and the drivers.”
This technical reset levels the playing field, turning the sport into a battle of wits and adaptability. And in this chaos, the former champions believe the old hierarchy is about to crumble.
The Champion’s Headache: Lando vs. Oscar
Lando Norris enters 2026 as the reigning World Champion, carrying the coveted #1 on his McLaren. But heavy lies the head that wears the crown. Hill warned that the dynamic at McLaren could shift from celebration to civil war.
“Will Oscar [Piastri] because he’s in the same team… stop Lando beating him again?” Hill mused. The consensus is that Piastri, having tasted defeat, will return with a vengeance. “There will be more determination within the team from Oscar,” Herbert agreed.
While Norris has “grown massively” and shed the “crazy decision-making” of his past, the internal threat is palpable. McLaren’s “Papaya Rules” of equality might survive the winter, but the pressure of a title defense against a teammate who refuses to play second fiddle could be the team’s undoing.
Red Bull’s Gamble and the “Softer” Max
Perhaps the biggest question mark hangs over Red Bull. The team that dominated the ground-effect era is navigating a perilous transition. They have lost technical genius Adrian Newey, sporting director Jonathan Wheatley, and are embarking on the daunting task of building their own engine with Ford.
“The team has been stripped of some fairly major personalities,” Hill observed. While Max Verstappen remains a “coherent fighting force,” the uncertainty of the Red Bull Powertrains project is a looming spectre.
Herbert raised an intriguing point about Verstappen himself: has the ruthless Dutch lion mellowed? “It comes across as a much softer Max than it was before,” he suggested, though noting flashes of the old aggression remain. With a new rookie teammate in Isack Hadjar—who Herbert describes as “expressive” and unlikely to be a “quiet little mouse”—Verstappen faces a new kind of challenge. Can he trust an unproven engine and a rookie wingman to keep him at the top?
The Hamilton Enigma: “Has the Magic Gone?”
The conversation took a somber turn when discussing Lewis Hamilton. Now five years removed from the heartbreak of Abu Dhabi 2021, the seven-time champion’s form at Ferrari is under the microscope.
“He’s taken a beating like you cannot imagine,” Herbert said candidly. The duo debated whether Hamilton’s struggles are down to the machinery or the inevitable march of time. Hill questioned if the “magic” has faded, comparing the loss of qualifying speed to his own experiences.
“Qualifying was the first thing that I lost,” Hill revealed. “I didn’t feel comfortable being able to push it to that edge again.”
The contrast with Fernando Alonso, who continues to defy age at Aston Martin, is stark. While Alonso is “brutally harsh” and still hungry, Hill wondered if Hamilton’s mind has drifted to life after racing. “Has he had a belly full?” Hill asked. Unless Ferrari pulls a miracle out of the bag with their 2026 car, the fairy-tale ending for Hamilton looks increasingly elusive.
The Verdict: A Silver Arrow Rising
So, who wins in 2026? In a sport obsessed with the dominance of Verstappen and the rise of McLaren, Hill and Herbert looked elsewhere.
“I’m probably going to go Mercedes,” Hill declared, dropping his prediction for the Constructors’ Championship. But his pick for the Drivers’ Champion was even more specific: George Russell.
“I think the dark horse here is George Russell,” Hill stated. “He performed brilliantly consistently all year… secretly I think they are in a good place.”
Herbert concurred, suggesting a “double win” for the Silver Arrows. The logic is sound: Mercedes has a history of mastering new engine regulations (remember 2014?), and with a settled lineup of Russell and the young prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli, they possess the stability that Red Bull lacks.
“If the car is the dominant force, they have the right pairing,” Herbert added.
Conclusion: The Great Reset
The 2026 season promises to be a “reset” button for Formula 1. With Audi joining the fray, Cadillac on the horizon, and every team scrambling to master the new 50/50 power units, the predictability of recent years is over.
Hill and Herbert’s verdict is a warning to the paddock: do not underestimate the sleeping giants. While the world watches Max and Lando, George Russell and Mercedes may be quietly positioning themselves to steal the future. As Hill concluded, “We know exactly what’s going to happen… unless we have to revise everything.”
Buckle up. 2026 is going to be a wild ride.