Yuki Tsunoda’s F1 Future in Jeopardy After Disastrous Qualifying Run

The 2025 Formula 1 season has been far from kind to Yuki Tsunoda. The Japanese driver, now in his fifth year under the Red Bull umbrella, has found himself in a downward spiral with his performances—particularly in qualifying. After failing to reach Q3 for the fifth consecutive race, alarm bells are ringing across the paddock. With both Racing Bulls making it out of Q1 and Red Bull looking to future talent like Arvid Lindblad and Isaac Hajar, Tsunoda’s place in Formula 1 appears increasingly unstable.

The Decline: Five Races, No Q3

Yuki Tsunoda’s qualifying performance has plummeted in recent races. Despite some decent showings early in the season, the last five Grands Prix have highlighted a concerning trend. He’s been knocked out in Q1 on multiple occasions, and even when he has managed Q2, he hasn’t posed a serious challenge for points. In Austria, he cited a lack of front grip, saying, “Mate, I didn’t have any grip, bro.” But in a cutthroat environment like F1, excuses—however valid—don’t buy much time.

More worrying for Tsunoda is that both Racing Bulls teammates, Liam Lawson and Isaac Hajar, have outperformed him in similar machinery. Lawson reached Q3 in Austria and scored four valuable points in Monaco. Hajar, though still adapting, has shown promise and remains highly rated by Helmut Marko and team bosses.

Red Bull’s Ruthless Development Path

Red Bull’s feeder system has long been known for its ruthlessness. Drivers are expected to perform—or be replaced. It’s the same principle that saw drivers like Jean-Éric Vergne, Daniil Kvyat, and Alex Albon lose their seats under pressure. And now, it seems Tsunoda may be next in line.

Christian Horner has been candid about Tsunoda’s situation. “You can’t be part of the sister team for five years and remain there forever,” he said. That sentiment mirrors Red Bull’s core philosophy: produce elite talent for the top team, or make way for the next contender.

Tsunoda, for all his raw speed and charisma, hasn’t yet delivered consistent results to warrant a Red Bull seat or even secure long-term tenure in the sister team.

Hajar and Lindblad: The New Hope

Red Bull’s current driver pool is stronger than it has been in years. Isaac Hajar, despite being outqualified by Lawson in Austria, is showing potential and is accumulating points steadily. His recent comments, “I’m not ready, but I’ll accept it if it comes my way,” reflect his readiness to take on the challenge if Red Bull comes calling.

Meanwhile, Arvid Lindblad, the British-Swedish-Indian sensation from F2, is rapidly climbing the ranks. Many in the F1 world are already touting him as the “next Verstappen.” He’s set to participate in FP1 at Silverstone, a subtle but telling sign of Red Bull testing the waters. Although the team is keen to give him time to develop, the trajectory is clear—Lindblad is being groomed for something big.

Lawson: The Dark Horse of the Red Bull Family

While all eyes are on Tsunoda and the rising prospects, Liam Lawson is quietly building a case for himself as the most solid talent behind Max Verstappen. His Austria performance marked him as the highest qualifier from the Red Bull camp, outshining even Verstappen—albeit with Max caught in a yellow-flag incident during Q3.

Lawson’s previous stint in F1, filling in during injury spells, didn’t set the world alight. But his recent form indicates a more seasoned and confident driver. If Red Bull decides to reshuffle, pairing Lawson with Hajar at Racing Bulls could be the natural next step.

The Broader Red Bull Crisis

Amid all of this is the ongoing struggle with the RB21. Verstappen himself called the car “completely undrivable,” lamenting the lack of grip at all speed levels. This brings into question the development direction of Red Bull’s 2025 challenger and whether the upgrades introduced have actually harmed performance.

If Verstappen, arguably the most adaptable and consistent driver on the grid, is struggling, then it’s no surprise that others like Tsunoda are drowning. However, while Max has a world championship pedigree to lean on, Tsunoda doesn’t have the same level of immunity.

The Verdict: Tsunoda’s Days May Be Numbered

In the high-pressure world of Formula 1, time is a luxury few drivers can afford. Tsunoda was once touted as a future star—a fiery, fearless racer with serious speed. But five years into the Red Bull program, patience is running out.

The problem isn’t just performance. It’s timing. With Hajar waiting in the wings, Lawson performing consistently, and Lindblad looking more and more like Verstappen 2.0, there is simply no space for stagnation. Helmut Marko has already hinted that a mid-season change could occur after the summer break, and Tsunoda’s name is top of the list.

Unless he stages a miraculous turnaround in the next few races, his F1 journey with Red Bull may end abruptly—and perhaps permanently.

What’s Next?

All signs point toward a driver change. Red Bull may promote Hajar to Racing Bulls and keep Lawson, forming a dynamic, youthful pairing to close out 2025. Meanwhile, Tsunoda could find himself on the sidelines or looking for a seat elsewhere—perhaps in Super Formula, WEC, or even IndyCar, where ex-F1 drivers often rebuild.

And while Lindblad won’t be rushed into the Red Bull seat, he is undoubtedly being groomed for it. If Verstappen ever decides to leave—rumors persist of potential dissatisfaction—then the door opens wide for Lindblad to step into the spotlight.

Conclusion

Yuki Tsunoda’s 2025 season has unraveled into what may be his final act in Formula 1. A combination of poor qualifying form, increased pressure from rising talents, and a car that refuses to perform has led him to the brink. The Red Bull system is as competitive and cutthroat as ever, and if there’s one thing we know, it’s that they never hesitate to make bold moves.

As we head into the summer break, all eyes will be on Red Bull’s next decision. Will they stick with Tsunoda and hope he regains form—or has the countdown already begun?

Full Video: