Liam Lawson’s future at Red Bull, and Formula 1 in general, is hanging in the balance for 2026 after a turbulent start to this season.

Red Bull chose the Kiwi driver to replace Sergio Perez for the 2025 campaign, despite having less experience than his Racing Bulls teammate Yuki Tsunoda. He had been beaten by the Japanese driver in his six-race stint in 2024, but Christian Horner believed Lawson had the higher ceiling.

The 23-year-old faced the daunting prospect of being in the second Red Bull seat next to Max Verstappen, with his predecessors all struggling massively. Unfortunately, Lawson became the next to suffer the same fate.

He was eliminated in Q1 in the opening two races, qualifying last twice in Shanghai. Subsequently, Red Bull dropped Lawson back down to Racing Bulls, with Tsunoda taking his place for the remainder of the season.

Lawson lost total confidence at Red Bull as he could not find any performance from the RB21. Racing Bulls give him the chance to lift his morale in a familiar environment and an easier car to drive.

But the New Zealander has to perform. Lawson is out of contract in 2025, and Red Bull may have already made their decision on his future for 2026.

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Liam Lawson set to stay at Racing Bulls for 2026

Since returning to Racing Bulls, Lawson has been outperformed by rookie teammate Isack Hadjar. The Frenchman has been hugely impressive in 2025, making regular Q3 appearances and points finishes.

But Racing Bulls team principal, now Red Bull CEO, Laurent Mekies says Lawson’s work is going unnoticed behind the scenes. The Kiwi driver is putting in the effort to improve his form, which has been rewarded with points finishes in Monaco and Silverstone, the latter being his best F1 result with P6.

He has been getting closer to Hadjar in recent races, and might have done enough to see him stay on the grid. According to a report from The New Zealand Herald, it is ‘increasingly likely’ that Lawson will be retained for the 2026 season.

‘Sources’ are suggesting that the 23-year-old will stay with Racing Bulls ‘as the team’s senior driver’. He technically already holds that role alongside Hadjar in 2025, but Red Bull are understood to ‘want at least one experienced driver’ at the Faenza outfit.

The 2026 F1 regulations are set to shake up the pecking order with new engine and chassis rulesets. Lawson knows Racing Bulls well, having now had three separate stints with the team, and will be a familiar face to rely on in the new era.

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Who will be Liam Lawson’s teammate at Racing Bulls next season?

With Lawson’s future allegedly decided, Red Bull are still left with a headache over their driver line-up. Tsunoda and Hadjar are also out of contract in 2025, while the team desperately try to hold on to their star driver as Verstappen engages in talks with Mercedes.

Tsunoda has an ‘almost 0%’ chance of staying in F1 in 2026, leaving a vacancy at Red Bull. Hadjar is being favoured for the seat for next season, having impressed Helmut Marko.

A promotion back to Red Bull may be possible for Lawson in the future, but he will want to take advantage of his opportunity at Racing Bulls in 2026, especially with the new regulations.

The New Zealander will be key for the Faenza outfit in technical feedback, development, and also helping his teammate, who is almost certain to be a rookie. Arvid Lindblad is eyeing a seat at Racing Bulls as Red Bull prepare him for F1 after his debut F2 campaign.