It’s not necessarily the most likely outcome right now, but there is a genuine possibility that Max Verstappen could walk away from Red Bull amid rumours of a Mercedes offer

A thrilling Formula 1 title battle has broken out this year with McLaren team-mates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri providing the entertainment. But even that, heading into this weekend’s British Grand Prix, has been overshadowed by a far more seismic story in the bigger picture.

Max Verstappen to Mercedes – it was all anyone was talking about in Austria last weekend and, late on Tuesday, from Europe came a bombshell claim, when Sky Italy reported that talks had become serious and that the Dutchman is “close” to deciding to quite Red Bull after a decade racing for them in F1.

That claim has not been verified and neither team has offered comment on the story. The only reaction ahead of media day at Silverstone on Thursday, where Verstappen is scheduled to speak to reporters, was from Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko who said the Dutchman “hasn’t signed” with Mercedes and called the rumours “annoying”.

He’s right – Verstappen hasn’t made a decision yet, and I’m sure Red Bull bosses truly are irritated by it all. But there is no smoke without fire, as they say, and it is possible that he may yet decide to start afresh under Toto Wolff. The idea that it could happen is certainly not ‘fake news’, as some people on social media might assume.

Mercedes team principal Wolff has been open for some time about his desire to lure Verstappen if he is indeed looking for a fresh start. His interest in the Dutchman goes back for more than a decade, to when the Silver Arrows missed out on him as a teenage prodigy because Red Bull could offer a clearer and quicker route into F1.

He has, of course, lived up to his obvious potential and has cemented his place among the sport’s all-time greats as a four-time World champion. But though he has won a couple of races this year, Verstappen’s reign is set to end with McLaren dominating proceedings, while Red Bull’s performance has declined.

Verstappen has been clear for many years that he does not plan on staying in F1 for a long time. He’s already been in the sport for a decade and has previously indicated that he could leave the sport at the end of his current Red Bull contract, which expires in 2028, when he will be 31. He turns 28 in September this year and so, if he is still looking at his early 30s as a time to step away, then he only has a few years left.

Verstappen will want to spent as much of that time as he can winning. So, regardless of any loyalty he will feel to Red Bull, don’t be surprised if that is trumped by that desire for more success. And if he thinks another team can give him a greater chance of winning, then it’s hard to imagine him not at least giving it thorough consideration.

Mercedes adapted best the last time there was a major change to the engines used in F1, as there will be from next year. The Silver Arrows are confident they are on the right track again and it seems Verstappen is convinced enough to at least engage in talks.

So perhaps it is a good idea for George Russell to be speaking with other teams, as Martin Brundle said he is. The Brit is having the best season of his career but he seems the most likely to be dropped if Verstappen does sign with Mercedes, as they don’t want to let teenage prodigy Kimi Antonelli slip through their fingers as the Dutchman once did.

What Wolff must decide is whether he wants to keep Antonelli alongside Russell, who has the reputation of a team player, or risk pairing him with Verstappen who has been the main man at Red Bull for years and who would expect to retain that status even if he did make the switch.