Ferrari’s Technical Gamble, Driver Market Shake-ups, and the Road to 2026: A Midseason F1 Analysis
As the 2025 Formula 1 season begins to take shape amid a turbulent driver market and sweeping regulation changes on the horizon, the sport finds itself at a critical inflection point. From Ferrari’s technical overhaul to Red Bull’s driver dilemmas and the increasingly intriguing 2026 rule shift, there is no shortage of drama on and off the track. Here’s a breakdown of the latest developments and what they could mean moving forward.
Ferrari’s Rear Suspension Overhaul and Power Steering Woes
Ferrari is set to introduce a significant rear suspension upgrade at the Belgian Grand Prix following a private test at Mugello. While visually subtle, the modification reportedly improves the car’s ability to absorb vibrations and maintain stable ride height — a factor that has previously forced Ferrari to run a compromised setup due to plank wear limits.
This adjustment could help the Scuderia run the car lower to the ground without risking disqualification — a critical performance advantage. The test data suggests a lap-time gain of about a tenth of a second, which, while modest on paper, could prove crucial in a tightly contested midfield battle.
However, Ferrari’s issues don’t stop with the rear suspension. A power steering issue has plagued the team, particularly in Q3 sessions when cars are on the edge of performance. Charles Leclerc has hinted at steering inconsistencies, and now there’s speculation that a fundamental misstep occurred when Ferrari leaned towards Carlos Sainz’s steering feedback rather than Leclerc’s — despite knowing Sainz was set to leave for 2025.
Even Lewis Hamilton, who will join Ferrari next season, reportedly criticized the steering system after initial tests, asking if the car was broken due to its feel. While not race-ending, this issue appears to be robbing Ferrari of tenths during crucial qualifying moments, and a mid-season fix could prove vital in turning their campaign around.
The Red Bull-Honda-Yuki Tsunoda Triangle
Over at Red Bull, the future of Yuki Tsunoda remains uncertain. Once a project backed heavily by Honda, Tsunoda’s position at Red Bull’s sister team, RB (formerly AlphaTauri), appears increasingly precarious as the Honda partnership winds down at the end of 2024.
Insiders reveal that Honda had to pressure Red Bull into keeping Tsunoda in a competitive seat — reportedly over concerns about rookie Liam Lawson’s mental resilience. But with Red Bull’s Honda collaboration ending and the brand aligning with Aston Martin for 2026, Tsunoda’s future in F1 may be hanging by a thread. A move to Aston Martin seems unlikely due to Fernando Alonso’s tenure and Lawrence Stroll’s stake in his son’s seat. Tsunoda may be left searching elsewhere, with whispers about Cadillac or even an exit from the sport entirely.
Driver Market Speculation: Verstappen, Russell, and the Rising Stars
Speculation continues to swirl around a potential Max Verstappen move to Mercedes in 2026. Mercedes, under pressure from both internal stakeholders and their customer team McLaren (who are outperforming them with the same engine), appear keen to make a blockbuster signing to spearhead their next-generation car project.
If Verstappen were to make the jump, it would set off a domino effect: What happens to George Russell? Could Carlos Sainz return to Red Bull? Would Alex Albon or Oscar Piastri be viable options? Red Bull would be left trying to squeeze five drivers into four seats — an impossible task that could leave the likes of Tsunoda out in the cold.
Young talents like Ollie Bearman, who impressed during his Ferrari stand-in role at the Saudi Arabian GP, are also on the radar. With Hamilton potentially moving on in a couple of years, Bearman could be Ferrari’s next long-term prospect.
Meanwhile, Jack Doohan may be quietly re-emerging as a Cadillac candidate, despite a difficult stint with Alpine. In the chaos of the midfield, a reset year like Sergio Perez once had could do wonders for Doohan’s career.
2026: The End of Ground Effect?
Perhaps the most seismic development in the F1 world isn’t driver-related but technical. Reports suggest that for 2026, Formula 1 will abandon ground effect as the central aerodynamic philosophy. The upcoming cars will feature flat floors, with Venturi tunnels banned outright. The ground effect era that began with the 2022 regulations — aimed at reducing dirty air and encouraging closer racing — appears to have failed to deliver on all fronts.
If true, the implications are huge:
Cars will be slower, but potentially better at racing wheel-to-wheel.
Teams like Mercedes, who have struggled with ground-effect concepts, could benefit enormously.
This change may play into the hands of drivers like Hamilton, who have reportedly never fully adapted to the demands of ground effect machinery.
The potential failure of this current era also casts a shadow on the massive investments teams made post-2022. A return to more traditional setups will require a rethink of design philosophies across the grid.
Ferrari’s Structural Shift and Internal Politics
Amidst all this, Ferrari may be restructuring its leadership team once again. Reports suggest they are considering an executive appointment to bridge the gap between team principal Fred Vasseur and top brass like Benedetto Vigna and John Elkann.
While potentially positive in terms of communication, the move also raises red flags. Would a new middleman solve Ferrari’s issues, or would giving Vasseur more autonomy have been the better route? Historically, Ferrari’s bloated decision-making structure has been part of its downfall — and adding more voices to the mix may risk complicating things further.
With Loïc Serra playing a major role in the 2024 technical direction and being pivotal in Hamilton’s move, the stakes are high. The success or failure of the new rear suspension could determine not just Ferrari’s season but also internal job security.
Final Thoughts
Formula 1 is in flux. The Ferrari upgrades could bring them back into contention, but the real turning point might be 2026 — a season that promises to redefine technical standards and driver dynamics alike.
Will Mercedes dominate again with a new formula and Verstappen at the wheel? Will Ferrari resolve its internal contradictions and finally deliver for Leclerc and Hamilton? And what of young talents like Bearman, Doohan, and the ever-volatile Yuki Tsunoda?
As ever in F1, the only certainty is change. The second half of 2025, and the build-up to 2026, may prove to be one of the most transformative periods in the sport’s modern history.
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