George Russell could become the next Carlos Sainz this year. Despite performing at an elite level, he could feasibly lose his Mercedes seat.

In 2024, Sainz fell victim to one of the most ruthless decisions in recent F1 history. Despite winning multiple races for Ferrari and performing at a similar level to Charles Leclerc, he was dropped in favour of Lewis Hamilton.

Russell has been one of the standout drivers on the grid this year. Only the two McLaren drivers have scored more podiums than the Canadian GP winner, who sits fourth in the championship.

Photo by Bryn Lennon – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images
But Russell isn’t Max Verstappen-level, at least in the eyes of Toto Wolff, and that could cost him his drive. Similarly, the only issue with Sainz isn’t that he wasn’t Lewis Hamilton.

Carlos Sainz sympathises with George Russell and thinks Max Verstappen talk is affecting him

In an interview with talkSPORT ahead of the British Grand Prix, Sainz was asked about how difficult it is to maintain focus amid ongoing speculation. Russell is out of contract at the end of the year, and the race at Silverstone marks the halfway point of the season.

After Sainz’s Ferrari exit was confirmed, he dominated the early stages of the F1 driver market. There were links with Sauber and Alpine before he chose Williams.

The Spaniard still delivered, picking up two wins and nine podiums. Likewise, there’s no sign yet of Russell appearing distracted or under pressure on track.

But Sainz still thinks that the 27-year-old is hiding how much the current situation is affecting him.

“As a racing driver, it’s not an ideal situation,” he said. “We all try and hide the fact that it affects you, we try not to be affected.

“I strongly believe, like I did last year, you can have a very strong season with all this noise going around your future and your team. It can be proved by what George is doing this year.

“At the same time, it’s not ideal. It’s noise for you, it’s noise for the team, it’s noise for your engineers, for your mechanics.

“In an ideal situation, the way you go racing, the way you are getting the results and the way you are being world champion is when all this is quiet, and when there’s 100% trust between you and the team, and when there’s 100% commitment between both parties.

“Even though you can still have a very successful season, it’s not the ideal situation and it’s not what any driver wants.”

Toto Wolff could keep George Russell and send Kimi Antonelli to this F1 team

It’s worth stressing that Verstappen to Mercedes is still unlikely. And even if he does make the move, there are a couple of scenarios where Russell stays.

The first is that Verstappen joins Mercedes in 2029 when his contract comes to an end. The current talks could have a long-term objective in mind.

The second is that Wolff takes the risk of pairing Russell and Verstappen. There’s every indication that the two drivers are among the biggest enemies on the F1 grid.

This could see Kimi Antonelli move to Alpine, soon to be Mercedes engine customers, on a loan deal. That would give Mercedes the strongest possible 2026 line-up, but potentially harm Antonelli’s development.