The biggest Formula 1 2025 silly season story by far has been the constant speculation that Max Verstappen could quit Red Bull to replace George Russell at Mercedes

Max Verstappen and manager Raymond Vermeulen(Image: Getty Images)

Max Verstappen is almost certain to stick with Red Bull for the 2026 season with his release clause set to expire. It is understood that the Dutchman would have been free to trigger an exit from the team if he were to find himself fourth or lower in the championship by the Formula 1 summer break.

But that is now mathematically impossible after his strong haul at the Belgian Grand Prix. Verstappen won Saturday’s Sprint race and finished fourth in the rain-affected main event a day later. He is third in the championship and 28 points ahead of George Russell in fourth, with one race to go until the break.

Even if Verstappen were to finish Sunday’s Hungarian Grand Prix pointless, and Russell were to win in Budapest, he would still be above the Brit in the championship. And so his easiest route out of Red Bull has now been blocked, amid speculation he could quit for rivals Mercedes.

Despite the poor form of struggling rookie Kimi Antonelli, who finished pointless again on Sunday, Russell was by far the most likely Silver Arrows driver to make way if they had managed to lure Verstappen. Both Mercedes drivers are out of contract at the end of this year, as it stands.

But a new deal for Antonelli is still likely to be a formality despite his difficult run – his first F1 podium in Canada was his only points finish across the last seven events. And despite delays to Russell’s renewal, it is now expected that he too will put pen to paper on fresh terms in the coming weeks after a recent breakthrough in talks.

The 27-year-old told Sky Sports on Sunday that he does not expect to sign a new deal before the Budapest race. And a few days earlier he had claimed it was “unlikely” that he would secure his future by the summer break. But the one thing boss Toto Wolff was waiting on, the potential availability of four-time World champion Verstappen for the 2026 season, now seems to be out of the question.

Without an exit clause available, it would now take an enormous compensation offer – likely north of £100million – to convince Red Bull to part with their prized asset. Verstappen is contracted until 2028 and is believed to earn around £50m per year in guaranteed salary, before performance bonuses.

Whether he sees out that deal, though, will largely depend on Red Bull’s performance next term. Verstappen’s streak of titles will almost certainly end this year with McLaren dominating the grid and he will want to spend as little time as possible out of contention.

He turns 28 in September and has consistently indicated that he will retire from F1 racing comparatively early, even at times suggesting that his current Red Bull deal could be his last. He will want a title-winning car as often as possible and, if Red Bull are not competitive next year, when they will be using their own engines built in-house for the first time, then he is likely to consider his options.

Links to Mercedes are likely to resurface if they produce the best new engine, as they did in 2014 the last time the sport’s power unit rules changed. But, for now, the most eye-catching of 2025 F1 silly season stories seems to have reached its final chapter.