Reform UK on course for three-figure Commons majority while Labour brace for General Election disaster in bombshell mega poll

Reform UK is set for a three-figure majority in the House of Commons, while Labour are set for a huge slump, a bombshell poll has revealed.

It’s been a year of continued growth for Nigel Farage and Reform this year, demonstrated at local level where they made a net gain of 94 seats – the most of any party by a significant distance.

But now, on a national level, More in Common’s January MRP projects a Reform UK majority if a General Election were held today.

The organisation suggests, based on polling of more than 16,000 Britons, Reform would take 381 seats.

Mr Farage’s party are projected to win a majority of 112 over all other parties combined, with their earlier rapid polling gains now seemingly holding steady.

This would see Reform winning 60 per cent of seats on 31 per cent of the vote, rivalling the 2024 General Election as one of the most disproportionate results in modern British history.

Reform UK are set for a three-figure majority in the House of Commons, a bombshell poll has revealed

However, Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party’s slump is projected to continue.

On a local level, Labour ended 2025 with 89 seats fewer than they started.

More in Common project that, as it stands, Sir Keir’s party would slump to just 85 seats, a loss of 326 seats from their July 2024 landslide.

The report also suggests that Kemi Badenoch’s Tories are “stabilising”, and, while still down on their 2024 count, the result would be better than the previous MRP projection.

Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party’s slump is projected to continue

It also puts them within touching distance of Labour – just 15 seats.

As for the sudden emergence of the Green Party under Zack Polanski, whose membership numbers shot up from 70,000 to 180,000 in the final four months of the year, it remains positive.

They are projected to more than double their parliamentary presence from four to nine seats, taking seats directly from Labour.

More in Common UK Director Luke Tryl said that, based on polling since the Budget, Reform could hope for a “substantial three-figure majority”.

He added that the “Polanski surge” gave momentum to the Greens through “disillusioned progressives putting them within shouting distance of many more gains from Labour,” who in turn would “slump to a modern low”.

But Mr Tryl warned: “There is one major caveat: tactical voting. For the first time we have explored how tactical voting could reshape the model projections.

“It suggests the Liberal Democrats could be big winners here – and if that tactical voting is anywhere close to the scale we saw in Caerphilly, that parties of the left could deny Reform a majority and form a rainbow coalition of their own.”

The Liberal Democrats ran out major victors at local level throughout 2025. Ed Davey’s party won 106 Council by-elections in 2025, more than any other party.

They also held an astonishing 82 per cent of seats they defended in by-elections last year.

Mr Tryl continued: “The threat of tactical voting, combined with the narrow margin of many of Reform’s projected victories, suggests their momentum may have at least temporarily stalled.

“That, combined with the fact we are still years from an election, means that despite their success in 2025, the path to the next general election is still far from known.”