The first seat-by-seat analysis since Labour’s landslide win points to the increasing threat posed by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK which could become the third biggest party
Britain is on course for a hung Parliament, with Reform UK predicted to seize dozens of seats from Labour, according to a new mega-poll.
The first seat-by-seat analysis since Labour’s landslide win in July found Keir Starmer’s party could lose nearly 200 seats – 87 seats to the Tories, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP. The mega-poll by More in Common suggests Reform could overtake the Liberal Democrats to become the third largest party in Parliament.
The next election is not due to be held until 2029, which means it is too early to predict what would happen on polling day. The results show the increasing headache posed by Reform UK to Labour and the Tories. But the findings pour cold water on wild claims Nigel Farage could become Prime Minister – or even overtake the Tories to lead the opposition.
The analysis found Labour would still emerge on top with 228 seats, compared to 222 for the Tories, and 72 for Reform. The Lib Dems would win 58, the SNP on 37 and the Green Party would take 2.
But it suggests Mr Starmer’s massive majority would be wiped out, putting the country on course for a hung Parliament.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is proving a thorn in the side for both Labour and the Tories (
Image:
AFP via Getty Images)
Seven cabinet ministers risk losing their seats, six of them to Reform, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting predicted to lose his Ilford North seat to an independent. He clung onto his seat by just 528 votes in July after a fraught contest heavily influenced by Labour’s position on the conflict in Gaza.
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The analysis predicts Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson and Jonathan Reynolds could lose their seats to Reform, which could surge for Reform in south Yorkshire and Tyneside.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25% the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 21%, the Lib Dems on 14%, the Greens on 8%, the SNP on 2% and other parties on 3%.
The model – which uses the multi-level regression and post-stratification method that predicted the last three election results – points to a fragmentation of the vote, with some contests too close to call. In 221 seats, the winner has a lead of less than 5 percentage points, while in 87 seats there is a statistical tie where the winner is less than 2 percentage points ahead.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election. Instead it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.
“The first-past-the-post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife-edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote. There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer Government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.
“While the new Government is still in its infancy, it is clear that decisions such as means-testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly.”
The analysis is based on voting intention data collected between October 31 and December 16 from 11,024 adults in Great Britain.
