Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge had MRIs and J.D. Davis just got blindsided — what is going on??

Also, we have our Yankees and Reds season previews and Ken has more on a Twins pitcher making a comeback. I’m Levi Weaver here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!

Injury scares derail Yankees’ narrative

Until yesterday, the theme for the Yankees’ season preview would have been, “They got Juan Soto and revamped the bullpen.” But now a cloud is hanging over the whole thing while we wait to hear news on Gerrit Cole, who underwent an MRI to examine his elbow and Aaron Judge, who had an MRI of his own on his abs.

Judge’s results haven’t been officially announced, but it doesn’t seem like a worst-case scenario since he’s expected to start swinging the bat again “soon.” His Opening Day availability, however, is in question. Cole’s results may not be back before tomorrow, but for better or worse, they’ll have a massive impact on the Yankees’ outlook for the 2024 season. If he’s fine, they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner heading up a rotation that includes Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt. If the news is bad, it’s those four plus … Luke Weaver? Will Warren? Someone else?

Of note: Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are still free agents.

It would be a devastating blow to lose an irreplaceable star in The Bronx, something that hasn’t happened since all the way back in … last year, when Aaron Judge missed nearly two months after a collision with an outfield wall. Judge’s return, plus the addition of Juan Soto, a solid second year from Anthony Volpe and a (hopefully?) healthy trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu (not to mention a second-half Jasson Domínguez, as he returns from Tommy John surgery) would almost certainly help Aaron Boone’s case in his final year under contract as manager.

But for the time being, we’re all holding our breath while we wait for news about the team’s two biggest stars.

Key departures: RHP Domingo Germán, C Kyle Higashioka, INF/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, RHP Michael King, RHP Keynan Middleton, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Luis Severino, LHP Wandy Peralta

Key arrivals: LHP Caleb Ferguson, LHP Victor González, OF Trent Grisham, RHP Cody Poteet, OF Juan Soto, RHP Marcus Stroman, OF Alex Verdugo

Prospect corner: Even while recovering from elbow surgery, Domínguez heads up Keith Law’s Top 20 list, which details a farm system loaded at the lower levels, even if the upper levels are perhaps a bit sparse.

Ken’s Notebook: Paddack’s relief stints made an impression

From my latest column:

The Division Series was over. The Houston Astros had defeated the Minnesota Twins, three games to one. And as the Astros packed up, preparing to leave Target Field, manager Dusty Baker approached his Twins counterpart, Rocco Baldelli, and said something to the effect of, “Man, Paddack.”

Baker wasn’t the only Astros person impressed by Twins right-hander Chris Paddack, who threw 3 2/3 scoreless relief innings in the series, including 2 1/3 in the finale. Paddack, after entering in the fourth inning of a game the Twins lost, 3-2, ended his outing in breathtaking fashion, striking out Yordan Alvarez swinging and Kyle Tucker looking, then retiring José Abreu on a foul pop.

“Everything was exploding out of his hand,” said Alex Bregman, who struck out twice against Paddack in the series.

“He was filthy. He was legit,” said Alex Cintrón, one of the Astros’ hitting coaches. “It was surprising, shocking how good he was, coming back from the surgery, coming out of the pen.”

Paddack, 28, was a starter in 65 of his 66 career appearances before undergoing his second major elbow reconstruction in May 2022. He returned for two relief outings at the end of last season before excelling in the playoffs. This season, he again will be a starter, helping fill a void created by the free-agent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda.

His comeback last season, topped off by pitching in his home state of Texas before 45 friends and family members in Game 1 of the DS, “That’s just stuff you can’t write up,” Paddack said. He did not pitch in the Twins’ wild-card series triumph over the Toronto Blue Jays. Against the Astros, he gained not only confidence, but also a fresh outlook.

“I never thought in a million years I’d be comfortable out there,” Paddack said. “Being a starter, we have our special routines, superstitions, brushing our teeth this way, doing bands that way. But coming out of the bullpen changed my career.”

Paddack was a revelation when he produced a 3.33 ERA in 26 starts as a rookie for the San Diego Padres in 2019. But he struggled to a combined 4.95 ERA in 2020 and ’21, then was traded to the Twins with reliever Emilio Pagán as part of a five-player deal in which the Padres acquired reliever Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker on the eve of Opening Day 2022.

“I fell in a hole, was searching a little bit the past couple of seasons,” Paddack said. “There was a lot going through my head. There was doubt in some games more than others. I started overanalyzing, started giving too much credit to hitters, forgetting what Chris Paddack does best.”

And in the bullpen?

“You have seven minutes to get ready. And you’re thrown to the wolves: ‘I want you to go get Alvarez out,’” Paddack said. “There’s no searching or saving pitches. You’ve got to throw your best stuff.”

Will the Reds youth movement continue?

There’s more to the Reds than Elly De La Cruz (but he’s still pretty exciting). (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

ZiPS projected record: 79-83

The 2023 Reds were one of the more fun stories in the league, as their posse of prospects began to jell at the big-league level. Chief among them, from an excitement level, was Elly De La Cruz, whose Baseball Savant page looks like an election map with all the deep red and blue. He does the exciting things well — he’s the fastest player in the game, throws harder than any other infielder and hits mega-bombs — but his xWOBA (expected weighted on-base average) is one of seven categories in which he ranks in the 30th percentile or lower.

This year, I’ll be watching De La Cruz to see how his second season goes. But there’s more to the Reds than that. For the first time since 2007, there’s no Joey Votto. They also beefed up their starting rotation, bringing in Frankie Montas and swingman Nick Martinez, then — in a move that surprised me, given their roster full of good young infielders — signed Jeimer Candelario. Add Brent Suter and Emilio Pagán to the bullpen, and it was a sneaky good offseason in Cincinnati.

So, why are they projected to have a worse record than last year? Well, they probably overperformed their young talent last year. But check out this list of young position players: Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, TJ Friedl, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jake Fraley and Will Benson. You want pitchers? Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott. If all (or even most) of those guys start to hit their relative ceilings as they mature, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again this year.

Key departures: OF Harrison Bader, C Curt Casali, RHP Derek Law, INF/OF Nick Senzel, 1B/DH Joey Votto

Key arrivals: 1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, INF/OF Josh Harrison, RHP Nick Martinez, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Emilio Pagán, LHP Brent Suter

Prospect corner: The farm system took a pretty big hit when Noelvi Marte — who topped Keith Law’s Top 20 Reds prospects list — was suspended 80 games for a positive PED test last week. Still, the top of the list is strong, with Cam Collier and three others making Law’s Top 100 list, including RHP Rhett Lowder, who is at No. 60 on the overall list despite not having yet thrown a pitch in pro ball.

Missed yesterday’s previews? We started with the Dodgers and Marlins. Tomorrow we’ll look at the Cubs and Orioles.

What is going on with the Giants and J.D. Davis?

Ever since the Giants signed Matt Chapman, the question has been: “So what happens to J.D. Davis?” The writing on the wall seemed to indicate that he would probably be traded.

But I guess the wall had some fine print in ink that only showed up under a black light. What many of us learned yesterday was that there’s a clause in the new collective bargaining agreement that allows teams to go all the way through the arbitration process, and once a number has been decided on by the arbiter (that’s an important part of the sentence), the team can release the player, paying him only 30 days of termination pay.

That wasn’t unheard of in the “old days,” but one of the big wins the MLBPA got in this particular CBA was that arbitration salaries would be guaranteed. One tiny little caveat: not if that number is arrived at in a hearing.

In Davis’ case, that means that he woke up on Monday morning with a job and a salary of $6.9 million. By the end of the day, he was due a check for $1.1 million and he was unemployed.

The “loophole” shines an interesting light on how teams could exploit the system in the future. As Andrew Baggarly points out, negotiations between the Giants and Davis’ agent were shockingly terse, and it’s not unfair to wonder if the team viewed a hearing as the preferable outcome, knowing that even if they lost (which they did), an arbiter’s decision would give them the option to cut bait with Davis at a fraction of the price should they succeed in signing Chapman (which they did).

Check back in the 2026-27 offseason (when the current CBA expires and a new one must be negotiated) to see if this becomes a sticking point with the MLBPA.

Handshakes and High Fives

For the first time since injuring his knee in the WBC last year, Edwin Díaz took the mound in game action. He struck out the side.

Good news for Sonny Gray, who threw his first bullpen just one week after a hamstring strain and could be back for Opening Day. Bad news for Lucas Giolito, who will undergo elbow surgery.

Opening Day stateside won’t happen until March 28. But on March 20, the Dodgers and Padres will open the season in Seoul, South Korea, with Tyler Glasnow and Yu Darvish as the starting pitchers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Joe Musgrove will take the ball the next day.

Eno Sarris has a fascinating data dive on statistical trends among players in their final year before free agency.

Jim Bowden has offseason grades, takeaways and predictions for all 30 teams.