Analyzing Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Dark Horse Contenders for MLB's Season Homerun Crown

Baseball continues to evolve, whether it is rule changes, the proliferation and application of analytics, or advancements in training and conditioning.

However, one thing that hasn’t changed is the allure of the home run. Controversy aside, it will always be one of the game’s most popular (and debated) statistics.

So, which player will lead MLB in home runs in 2024? BetMGM has posted its odds for this season’s home run king. A few of the names are highlighted below, along with The Athletic’s Austin Mock’s projections.

All odds from BetMGM.

Aaron Judge (+375)

Austin Mock’s projection: 41.5 home runs

It should come as no surprise that Aaron Judge enters this season as the favorite. In 2022, he broke Roger Maris’ revered AL single-season record by mashing 62 home runs. And while his total dropped to 37 last year, it must be pointed out that he only got 367 at-bats in an injury-plagued campaign.

Judge played in only 106 games in 2023, missing 42 due to a torn ligament in his right big toe he suffered crashing into the wall at Dodger Stadium on June 3. Even though that injury took place more than eight months ago, Judge said at the start of spring training that his toe is something that will require “constant maintenance.”

This revelation adds an element of risk when it comes to hedging bets on Judge reestablishing himself as MLB’s home run king. So if you view this year’s race as Judge vs. the field, it’s safer to take the latter.

Shohei Ohtani (+1000)

Austin Mock’s projection: 38.2 home runs

Besides topping the AL with 44 home runs, Shohei Ohtani was No. 1 in all of baseball in slugging percentage (.654) and OPS (1.066). Ohtani has hit at least 34 home runs in the past three seasons, and now he’s joining a Dodgers lineup that will make it even harder to pitch around him. He also can focus on being a DH as he won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery in September.

The depth of the Dodgers’ roster and the expectation of numerous lopsided affairs may cost Ohtani some at-bats throughout the season. But unless the team plans to limit his usage, Ohtani should get plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers at the plate, including home runs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+2200)

Austin Mock’s projection: 32.7 home runs

Since finishing runner-up in the AL MVP voting in 2021, Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s offensive production has been trending in the wrong direction. His home run output has plummeted from an AL-leading 48 to 32 to just 26 in 2023, with his slugging percentage doing the same (.601 to .480 to .444). However, a closer look at last season’s results builds a strong case for banking on him bouncing back in 2024.

Even though the stat sheet may not show it, Guerrero is still hitting the ball hard. His average exit velocity of 92.1 MPH ranked him 15th in the majors last season per FanGraphs and isn’t that far off from his 2021 performance (95.1 MPH). It’s not a stretch to say that Guerrero was victimized by bad luck in 2023, as evidenced by the drastic difference in both his actual batting average (.264) and expected batting average (.291), as well as the larger gap when it comes to actual (.444) and expected (.494) slugging percentage.

At the start of spring training, Guerrero admitted he dealt with numerous nagging injuries last season, and he’s made a concerted effort to get into better shape to prepare him for the grind of the 162-game schedule. And let’s not forget that he’s entering his age-25 season, so he hasn’t even reached the peak years of his career. There’s a lot to like here, especially at these odds.

Spencer Torkelson (+6600)

Austin Mock’s projection: 28.2 home runs

Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan since Spencer Torkelson went No. 1 overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. He advanced through the minors quickly, making his major league debut on Opening Day two years ago. But he struggled mightily and was demoted to AAA in mid-July. His 2023 campaign also got off to a rough start, as he hit just .206 with only two home runs through the end of April; but then things gradually started to click for the former consensus top-10 overall prospect.

From Aug. 9 until the end of the season (48 games), Torkelson mashed 16 home runs with a .576 slugging percentage and .921 OPS. His 31 total home runs tied him for 22nd, and there’s reason to believe that there’s even more power ready to be unlocked.

For starters, Torkelson should be able to improve upon his .233 batting average (expected batting average was .251) while maintaining an upper-tier barrel rate (14.1% in 2023, 17th in MLB per FanGraphs). He also ranked in the top 25 in both hard-hit rate (50.4%, 13th) and exit velocity (91.8 MPH, 24th).

If Torkelson takes another significant step forward in the power department, it will require him to enjoy better success at home. Comerica Park is one of the toughest places to hit a home run, even after moving the fences in before last season. He hit 11 there compared to 20 on the road. But it’s not hard to envision some of these long, loud outs clearing the fences in 2024.

Jack Suwinski (+25000)

Austin Mock’s projection: 22.6 home runs

At first glance, it’s probably hard to understand Jack Suwinski’s inclusion in this list. A 15th-round pick in the 2016 draft out of high school, Suwinski has never been regarded as a top prospect. He also didn’t show a lot of power while making his way from Rookie ball to his big league debut in late April 2022. But that’s all changed after swatting 26 home runs last season.

Suwinski is the epitome of the modern-day, three-true outcome hitter. Besides the home runs, he ranked in the top 20 in both strikeouts (172) and walks (75) in 2023. He’s an extreme fly-ball hitter (53.6 percent was tops in MLB) but also often makes very solid contact (15.7% barrel rate, eighth). Combine this power profile with a projected role as the Pirates’ everyday center fielder, and Suwinski could be an appealing long-shot horse in the home-run race.

Austin Mock’s projected home run leaders

Austin Mock’s MLB projection model simulates the 2024 MLB season 100,000 times.

PLAYER/XHR

Aaron Judge/41.5